Hello world, its Wednesday, November 4th, 2026
AMD came out of the gate with a $17B guide, Texas voters went the other way and elected a governor who wants to pause data centers, and Oracle quietly handed Tencent back its 100,000 GPUs. Meanwhile, a fire overnight in Hsinchu reminded everyone how thin the high-end laminate supply is, and Japan may be about to get its biggest chemicals deal ever, on photoresist.
Let’s get into it. --Austin & Vik
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AMD guides to $17B and says 2027 revenue will grow more than 80%
AMD posted record Q3 revenue of $13.4B, up 45% YoY. Data Center nearly doubled to $8.5B (+97%) as MI450 shipments ramped. It guided Q4 to about $17B ±3%, roughly 66% YoY growth, well above the ~$16.2B consensus. On the call, Lisa Su said revenue should grow more than 80% in 2027 with server revenue doubling, and that AMD has already lined up wafers, substrates, advanced packaging and memory to support it. (AMD IR, CNBC)
Vik: AMD is here to crush earnings in Intel’s wake of destruction. AMD’s chiplet fungibility between client and server CPUs is a big factor. MI450 ramp is also impressive. Good going AMD!
Austin: Finally, after a lot of looking forward toward Helios, it’s here and showing up in the results. And next quarter will be even stronger for Helios, with continued EPYC strength. Happy for AMD, this has been the plan all along, and it’s working.
Texas elects a governor who ran on halting new data centers
Democrat Gina Hinojosa beat Greg Abbott after promising a moratorium on new data-center construction until the legislature passes protections for water, power and local communities. Abbott had already put a temporary hold on new approvals, so the pause is now likely to last longer and get stricter in the state that has been the center of the US AI buildout. Axios reported that voters pushed back on the AI buildout in races around the country. (AP, Axios)
Vik: We have discussed on the semi doped pod that NIMBYism will put the brakes on the AI buildout. These new election results have the capability to do so.
Fire hits Panasonic’s high-speed laminate and packaging-materials plant in Hsinchu
Explosions and a fire broke out around 2 a.m. local time at Panasonic Industrial Devices Materials Taiwan in Hukou, which makes high-speed PCB laminates and semiconductor packaging materials. Five workers were injured and two are missing. Economic Daily News says the plant is under 20% of Panasonic’s laminate capacity, which is concentrated in Koriyama (Japan) and Guangzhou/Suzhou. Still, high-end M6–M8 laminate for AI servers was already sold out, so any lost output tightens supply further. Analysts expect overflow orders to go to EMC, TUC, ITEQ and Nan Ya, but the actual damage is still unknown. (Taipei Times/CNA, Economic Daily News)
Vik: No!! Not packaging. We need substrate materials, PCB laminates and everything if we are going to sustain this build out. This kind of disaster only worsens shortages. Also, please do find those two missing people. Hope they’re ok.
Mitsui Chemicals in talks to buy JSR for more than ¥1.3 trillion
Nikkei and a Reuters exclusive both report that the state-backed fund JIC plans to sell JSR, the world’s top photoresist maker, to Mitsui Chemicals for more than ¥1.3T (about $8.2B), with a decision possible this month. Mitsui confirmed it is considering the purchase but says nothing has been decided. Its shares fell 13%, since the price is well above its own ~¥800B market cap. JIC took JSR private for about ¥900B two years ago. (Nikkei Asia, Mitsui Chemicals statement)
Vik: I would keep an eye on this. This is the same story of a company buying another that is priced far above what it can afford, like Marvell buying Lumentum. The consolidation wave seems to be starting.
Eaton Posts Record Quarter as AI Power Demand Lifts Orders and Guidance
Eaton delivered record third-quarter 2026 results, pairing strong organic growth with accelerating orders and a raised full-year organic-growth guidance range, as hyperscaler investment in AI infrastructure keeps pulling forward demand for electrical distribution equipment. Orders and backlog both hit records in the quarter, a combination that rarely shows up at the same time and leaves little ambiguity about the direction of the cycle.
Vik: Keep watching power. It’s a delicate balance. On the one side, there is a question of — are we really building all that much, especially with the NIMBY-ism? On the other side, if we do, how do we power all that stuff.
Simmtech Substrate Profit Clears 100B Won for First Time in Four Years
Simmtech posted operating profit above 100 billion won in its third quarter, the first time the substrate maker has cleared that threshold in four years, driven by surging demand for high-value AI server substrates. The stock jumped on the result as revenue climbed alongside the profit figure. The beat wasn’t Simmtech’s alone: a broad sweep of Korean semiconductor equipment and materials firms reported stronger earnings in the same period, with some suppliers doubling their operating profit year-on-year according to 헤럴드경제. Samsung Electro-Mechanics secured long-term supply deals exceeding 5 trillion won, while an AI server capacitor shortage is expected to peak in early 2027, extending the demand window for that company’s components. Hanmi Semiconductor chairman Kwak Dongshin separately committed an additional 10 billion won to buying shares in his own company.
Vik: The bottleneck trade has gone to substrates. It’s a big one that is choking the compute industry.
Sector Watch
Sector Watch
Servers & AI Infrastructure
Supermicro reported fiscal Q1 revenue of $19.9B, above its own preliminary range, and raised FY27 guidance to $72–82B from $65–72B. (Supermicro IR)
Google will invest $15B in Malaysia across 2027–28 for data-center campuses in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, plus more than 1 GW of new clean energy. (CNA)
Memory Capex & Pricing
Winbond‘s board approved NT$73.16B to expand its Kaohsiung 12-inch fab. Construction on the new module starts Dec. 29, with limited production in 2029. (TechNews)
Nanya Technology posted October revenue of NT$46.48B, up 487.7% YoY and its 12th straight monthly record. (Nanya IR)
SK hynix‘s proposed $45B NAND project in New York has stalled because Commerce hasn’t approved US tool licenses for its Dalian, China site, sources say. (Korea JoongAng Daily, citing Reuters)
Packaging Materials & OSAT
Sumitomo Bakelite first-half net profit rose 47% to ¥19.56B, with semiconductor materials revenue up 37.7% on epoxy mold compound demand for AI memory and power devices. (Sumitomo Bakelite IR)
SPIL (ASE) is in talks over about 50 hectares in Central Taiwan Science Park’s Erlin site, with an investment of up to NT$100B, according to Taiwan media. This is unconfirmed and not finalized, so treat it as rumor. (CTEE)
Talent Moves
MediaTek hired former Intel EVP Navid Shahriari as senior VP starting Nov. 9. He will run advanced process and yield, design-technology co-optimization, and advanced test and packaging, and will work with TSMC. (China Times)
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